1 00:00:00,25 --> 00:00:08,12 So thank you Martin for your willingness to do this interview. A pleasure to do it. 2 00:00:08,12 --> 00:00:12,95 We are in a very special location we are in the heart of Vatican City Why are we here 3 00:00:13,86 --> 00:00:21,98 Well we're here in the Vatican because the Vatican has a Academy of Science called the Pontifical Academy of Sciences which has 4 00:00:22,12 --> 00:00:30,92 conferences on various topics and the members seventy or eighty scientists from all over the world of all faiths 5 00:00:30,93 --> 00:00:36,12 and non so it's a really global academy and we have scientific discussions 6 00:00:36,4 --> 00:00:44,95 but I think one useful thing we can do is address issues of social import where if we can interest the authorities in 7 00:00:44,96 --> 00:00:47,05 the Vatican it can make a difference 8 00:00:47,24 --> 00:00:57,77 and to give one example we had a conference eighteen months ago in May twenty fourteen on sustainability climate 9 00:00:57,78 --> 00:01:01,25 and the environment and this got traction within the Vatican 10 00:01:01,87 --> 00:01:12,07 and it then led to the Papal Encyclical in mid twenty fifteen which of course was a very important influence on the 11 00:01:12,11 --> 00:01:13,51 Paris environmental 12 00:01:13,69 --> 00:01:21,86 and climate conference in December twenty fifteen because of course the pope has immense traction especially in Latin 13 00:01:21,87 --> 00:01:23,92 America Africa and East Asia 14 00:01:24,33 --> 00:01:31,26 and I think the fact that the pope would come out strongly in favor of the importance of concern about climate 15 00:01:31,51 --> 00:01:38,77 and our duties to the environment had a big effect in easing the past a consensus at the Paris conference so that's an 16 00:01:38,78 --> 00:01:45,25 example where the pontifical academy can I think have a more distinctive role than other national academies 17 00:01:45,42 --> 00:01:50,03 but you also have meetings on the cosmology and other subjects like that. 18 00:01:50,03 --> 00:01:57,13 Were you kind of surprised that particular in this kind of climate change debate Pope Francis kind of came out as such 19 00:01:57,14 --> 00:02:03,53 a strong I would almost say voice of reason. In a world that's sometimes very confused. 20 00:02:03,53 --> 00:02:08,35 Well I think it was surprising and gratifying because the other point that came out in that 21 00:02:08,51 --> 00:02:13,78 encyclical was the humanities duty to the environment and of course although 22 00:02:13,79 --> 00:02:21,38 Franciscans have had that view the Church itself has had the line that men have dominion over nature as it were so 23 00:02:21,61 --> 00:02:26,74 the statement fairly clearly that the environment has a value in its own right 24 00:02:26,99 --> 00:02:33,57 and we have an obligation to defend it is something which I think was not clearly apparent in earlier Catholic 25 00:02:33,58 --> 00:02:36,95 statements so not only I would say kind of the environment 26 00:02:37,16 --> 00:02:46,55 and you know human beings taking care of nature there was also a very specific angle in terms of global inequity 27 00:02:46,59 --> 00:02:54,19 and the fact that the poor were mostly affected by these issues Yes Well that's right I think of course the things that 28 00:02:54,2 --> 00:03:00,57 everyone can agree about the church is that it's got a global perspective it thinks long term 29 00:03:00,72 --> 00:03:02,29 and it cares about the world's poor 30 00:03:02,83 --> 00:03:09,16 and in the context of climate change of course the main victims of it will be the poor 31 00:03:09,81 --> 00:03:16,46 and the concern is something which is not short term we're concerned about future generations because they're the ones who 32 00:03:16,47 --> 00:03:18,33 will bear the impact of climate change 33 00:03:18,5 --> 00:03:27,1 and so the church really has all the prerequisites to be a body that can have a real global influence on this debate. 34 00:03:27,11 --> 00:03:33,64 Do you feel any tension between faith and science particularly if you're here. 35 00:03:33,64 --> 00:03:40,66 I don't think there is any tension because of course the Church used to of course be concerned I mean until twenty five 36 00:03:40,67 --> 00:03:45,67 years ago it wasn't good to talk too much about Galileo but things have changed completely now 37 00:03:45,98 --> 00:03:50,3 and the church is very happy to engage in debates on 38 00:03:50,3 --> 00:03:51,92 Issues like evolution 39 00:03:51,93 --> 00:03:59,58 and cosmology etc and I am a cosmologist so they're quite happy to talk about the big bang. So talking about the big bang and cosmology 40 00:03:59,59 --> 00:04:06,67 It's kind of striking that one of the previous presidents of this Academy: 41 00:04:06,67 --> 00:04:11,01 George Lemaitre he was both an ordained priest 42 00:04:11,02 --> 00:04:19,36 but he was also in some sense the father of the expanding universe and the big bang. 43 00:04:19,36 --> 00:04:24,09 So that's something that's perhaps that's a surprise for people to hear it is surprising 44 00:04:24,1 --> 00:04:32,72 and he was in fact a remarkable scientist who started in Cambridge at MIT and then he worked at Louvain. 45 00:04:32,72 --> 00:04:36,21 In Belgium his career and he became president of this academy 46 00:04:36,91 --> 00:04:44,42 but he was indeed one of the early people who applied Einstein's theory to models of the universe 47 00:04:44,64 --> 00:04:51,04 and had the idea of a big bang which he called the primeval atom and he thought very deeply about these questions 48 00:04:51,24 --> 00:04:56,45 and came up with models which are still part of the. 49 00:04:56,45 --> 00:04:58,65 Folklore of the subject as it were and Einstein did not like his ideas in the beginning 50 00:04:58,66 --> 00:05:05,57 no it Einstein actually was rather reluctant to accept all the most exciting 51 00:05:05,96 --> 00:05:08,93 conclusions of his theory he never liked black holes for instance 52 00:05:09,36 --> 00:05:14,93 but he didn't like the idea of the expanding universe he wanted a static universe 53 00:05:15,19 --> 00:05:22,22 and also he although he introduced this thing called the cosmic constant which is a latent force in 54 00:05:22,23 --> 00:05:30,94 empty space he didn't like it and then Lemaitre tried to argue that it was some effect that might be genuine 55 00:05:31,26 --> 00:05:32,84 and Lemaitre turned out to be right because 56 00:05:32,85 --> 00:05:39,41 one of the great discoveries of the last fifty years has been that this force in empty space does exist and is very important for 57 00:05:39,42 --> 00:05:44,82 the future of the universe. So what do you think of the fact that Einstein was clearly very brilliant. 58 00:05:44,82 --> 00:05:52,98 But in some sense could you say that his theory was even more clever than he was? It was because Einstein of course through his 59 00:05:52,99 --> 00:05:59,98 huge insight developed this theory but its consequences took decades to be fully. 60 00:06:00,19 --> 00:06:05,71 Understood and things like black holes the Big Bang 61 00:06:06,07 --> 00:06:14,2 and gravitational waves which are regarded now as the great confirmatory tests of the theory in all three cases 62 00:06:14,39 --> 00:06:17,1 Einstein was negative or ambivalent 63 00:06:17,5 --> 00:06:25,05 and also in all three cases it's only recently that we got convincing evidence can you say something about the state 64 00:06:25,18 --> 00:06:32,18 of cosmology if you really think about it in terms of a long term development I mean human kind has been thinking about 65 00:06:32,19 --> 00:06:32,78 the cosmos for 66 00:06:32,79 --> 00:06:39,61 millenia Yes Yes But what's happening right at this moment? Well of course it is interesting as you say that 67 00:06:39,89 --> 00:06:48,17 Einstein's theory was special and he was uniquely original as a scientist because he came up with this theory. 68 00:06:48,17 --> 00:06:55,52 As a result mainly of pure thought it was not stimulated by puzzling experiments. Did it come like a hundred years too early 69 00:06:55,53 --> 00:07:02,00 Yes fifty years too early had it not been for Einstein then the theory would not have been 70 00:07:02,01 --> 00:07:07,78 developed for decades and indeed it was not untill the nineteen sixtees. 71 00:07:08,3 --> 00:07:15,4 That astronomers found the first entities in the universe where Einstein's effect was important well than just 72 00:07:15,41 --> 00:07:18,79 being a tiny correction to Newton's theory in the nineteen sixties. 73 00:07:19,59 --> 00:07:23,37 We found objects called neutron stars. stars the matter of some 74 00:07:23,38 --> 00:07:26,89 but squeezed down into that down if you have a few kilometers 75 00:07:27,4 --> 00:07:32,36 and also black holes objects which had collapsed cutting everything off of the rest of the universe 76 00:07:32,37 --> 00:07:39,79 but leaving a gravitational imprint frozen in space where they left and evidence for these things emerged in the sixty's 77 00:07:39,8 --> 00:07:40,54 and seventy's 78 00:07:40,74 --> 00:07:49,21 and also evidence emerged that our universe had evolved from some very dense hot state this was so-called background 79 00:07:49,22 --> 00:07:54,25 radiation which fills the universe and is a relic of the hot dense beginnings of the universe 80 00:07:54,47 --> 00:07:58,51 and this is what Lemaitre had speculated about much earlier but the evidence came in the sixty's 81 00:07:58,52 --> 00:07:59,98 so from the sixty's onwards. 82 00:08:00,49 --> 00:08:06,85 there were phenomena which required Einstein's theory in order to interpret them properly 83 00:08:07,04 --> 00:08:14,67 and so the theory changed from being rather sort of backwater out of the mainstream of physics to being one of the 84 00:08:14,68 --> 00:08:22,3 real frontiers of theoretical physics. I read somewhere in a obituary of Einstein that at the time of his death in 85 00:08:22,3 --> 00:08:29,2 1955 people admired his work as a great piece of art which is something for scientists it's quite a quite a 86 00:08:29,21 --> 00:08:35,22 putdown right because you don't want to be a you want to actually be a theory of the world of the Universe yes 87 00:08:35,41 --> 00:08:39,00 but it was a great piece of creative thinking of course 88 00:08:39,24 --> 00:08:48,45 there's a lot of discussion about creativity in the sciences versus in the arts of course most creativity in the 89 00:08:48,46 --> 00:08:51,74 arts is more distinctive but in the sciences 90 00:08:51,9 --> 00:08:59,71 and Einstein was more creative in that he made more difference normally in science if A didn't do something B. 91 00:08:59,72 --> 00:09:01,81 Would do it very quickly. 92 00:09:01,81 --> 00:09:05,23 That was true of quantum theory - that was more a collective effort. Yes 93 00:09:05,33 --> 00:09:12,01 but in the case of Einsteins relativity if he hadn't done it then the idea would not have emerged for decades 94 00:09:12,02 --> 00:09:14,35 particular I think for general relativity. That's right 95 00:09:14,36 --> 00:09:21,96 and one of my favorite scientific writers Peter Medawar who is. 96 00:09:21,96 --> 00:09:27,83 who is a great biologist and he put this rather well he said the difference between the arts 97 00:09:27,84 --> 00:09:35,16 and sciences are like this that if you are doing science then if you don't discover something then someone else will 98 00:09:35,17 --> 00:09:39,49 discover the same thing soon whereas when Wagner was. 99 00:09:39,49 --> 00:09:45,09 In the middle of the ring cycle he took ten years off to write Tristan and Meistersingers 100 00:09:45,31 --> 00:09:48,08 and he didn't think anyone would scoop him on Gotterdammerung 101 00:09:48,51 --> 00:09:54,57 and so I think there's a difference that in the arts your work is individualistic even though it doesn't last whereas 102 00:09:54,58 --> 00:09:59,98 in the sciences your work is durable is part of some growing edifice but it loses 103 00:10:00,01 --> 00:10:05,12 its individuality and if you hadn't done it then someone else would have done it fairly soon 104 00:10:05,31 --> 00:10:11,43 and Einstein is perhaps one of the few exceptions in that he did make a more distinctive imprint on twentieth century 105 00:10:11,44 --> 00:10:11,83 science than anyone else 106 00:10:11,84 --> 00:10:18,56 and one thing that is just fascinating I sometimes use the metaphor of finding the beginning of a roll of scotch tape 107 00:10:18,61 --> 00:10:21,49 you know which is very difficult and then you can unroll it is yes 108 00:10:21,77 --> 00:10:28,13 and so if you think of this unrolling tape particular for cosmology which is now. 109 00:10:28,13 --> 00:10:37,1 Like a hundred years since Einstein's work on general relativity we have this explosion of results of ideas where are we 110 00:10:37,11 --> 00:10:44,61 so to say in understanding the big picture do you feel we are just at the beginning we're half way what's your 111 00:10:44,62 --> 00:10:44,94 feeling 112 00:10:45,28 --> 00:10:50,5 well of course we are always at the beginning of science because as the frontiers advance their periphery gets longer 113 00:10:50,69 --> 00:10:57,00 and a new set of questions comes in. Particular about understanding the fundamental principles of the universe Yes Well I think 114 00:10:57,01 --> 00:11:01,63 people made huge progress certainly since I was a student forty years ago 115 00:11:02,28 --> 00:11:09,26 when we didn't know if there's a big bang at all one thing we've learned of course is that the universe in the 116 00:11:09,98 --> 00:11:16,88 scales that we can observe does have a certain uniformity yes we've learned that the atoms in a distant galaxy are just 117 00:11:16,89 --> 00:11:22,58 the same as the atoms in the lab. were that not the case of course the universe would be anarchic we would not make any 118 00:11:22,59 --> 00:11:28,68 progress at all but we've learned about that we've also learned that all the galaxies in the universe 119 00:11:28,69 --> 00:11:35,1 and all the stars can be traced back to a common origin in this hot dense beginning the so-called big bang 120 00:11:35,43 --> 00:11:39,93 and we can now date that to being thirteen point eight billion years ago 121 00:11:40,49 --> 00:11:46,51 and so we can trace out the history of the universe from the hot dense beginning to the present 122 00:11:46,86 --> 00:11:56,00 and we can also understand how from these amorphous beginnings the first structures formed as the universe cooled down 123 00:11:56,78 --> 00:11:59,98 and condensed into the first galaxies and stars. 124 00:12:00,18 --> 00:12:03,07 And we have a very good theory for this 125 00:12:03,38 --> 00:12:11,00 and we can actually test the theory a number of ways we can look back with our telescopes to objects so far away 126 00:12:11,14 --> 00:12:14,91 that their light set out when the universe was a tenth of its present age 127 00:12:15,14 --> 00:12:21,79 and we have evidence of the much earlier universe from studying in detail this background radiation to the beginning 128 00:12:22,14 --> 00:12:29,32 and we get a very consistent picture going back to when the universe was smooth apart from tiny fluctuations 129 00:12:29,78 --> 00:12:35,73 and to the stage when those fluctuations have enhanced their density contrast to make again galaxies 130 00:12:36,01 --> 00:12:38,12 and this is a consistent picture 131 00:12:38,16 --> 00:12:44,44 and it also tells us that the universe contains the ordinary atoms that we know about 132 00:12:44,73 --> 00:12:51,59 and also contains about five times as much stuff in the form of what's called dark matter. particles which have no 133 00:12:51,6 --> 00:12:57,88 electric charge and don't interact much as they move around under gravity we don't know what particles they are they're still a 134 00:12:57,89 --> 00:13:06,46 mystery but we know for sure that the dynamics of galaxies is dominated by this dark matter. 135 00:13:06,46 --> 00:13:14,14 Are you personally surprised that we came so far that we have such a complete picture of. 136 00:13:14,14 --> 00:13:16,79 The universe I mean you could imagine 137 00:13:16,8 --> 00:13:24,94 there are just formidable obstacles in learning about our own universe well I think it is it is gratifying in a surprising 138 00:13:24,95 --> 00:13:32,56 number of ways first of course we owe the advances ninety five percent to improvements in technology 139 00:13:32,57 --> 00:13:38,99 and instrumentation. arm chair theory doesn't get you very far by itself. none of us are as wise as Einstein we got 140 00:13:39,00 --> 00:13:45,06 further because we had better instruments. and he didn't even believe his own consequences of his theory only after 141 00:13:45,07 --> 00:13:51,52 experimental evidence Yes that's right became it clear for him too yes that's right 142 00:13:51,67 --> 00:13:59,98 but I think that a more fundamental level what is gratifying is that our minds which haven't changed very much since 143 00:14:00,43 --> 00:14:05,7 our ancestors roamed the African savannahs tens of thousands of years ago. 144 00:14:05,7 --> 00:14:08,73 Can cope not just with the everyday world that we evolved to cope with 145 00:14:08,92 --> 00:14:11,63 but can cope with the counter intuitive world of the quantum 146 00:14:12,28 --> 00:14:19,59 and also of the cosmos so it's surprising that the world is such that we can understand both the micro 147 00:14:19,72 --> 00:14:24,74 and the cosmic. what we have not yet quite understood is how to link those together as you know better than me the 148 00:14:24,75 --> 00:14:32,1 challenge of twenty first century physics is to have a unified theory which combines what Einstein did which gives us a 149 00:14:32,11 --> 00:14:40,24 good picture of the large scale universe and gravity with the quantum world. Are you optimistic that this will proceed 150 00:14:40,85 --> 00:14:46,13 or you are you expecting at some point there will be a sign forbidden for human beings. 151 00:14:46,13 --> 00:14:47,00 Well. for human scientists 152 00:14:47,26 --> 00:14:53,25 well you can judge far better than me how likely it is that string theory will deliver the goods or that some other theory 153 00:14:53,26 --> 00:15:00,81 will. I think it's very good that there were some people who believed that this may happen because otherwise they wouldn't be motivated 154 00:15:00,82 --> 00:15:06,31 to try if they're not motivated they would never succeed so it's very good that there are people including many of our friends 155 00:15:06,32 --> 00:15:13,88 and colleagues who are working on ideas of Unified Theories and I hope they will succeed 156 00:15:13,94 --> 00:15:23,18 but I think we have to be open minded about whether there are deep aspects of reality which are going to be beyond our 157 00:15:23,19 --> 00:15:30,29 capacity to grasp because after all I mean a monkey can't understand quantum theory and there may be some 158 00:15:30,29 --> 00:15:38,02 Deep features of reality which we just can't comprehend. we are as hopeless as monkeys to get there. You think that we will ever 159 00:15:38,34 --> 00:15:45,48 discover these things or that they are almost by definition outside our realm because monkeys probably will also not lament 160 00:15:45,49 --> 00:15:50,91 that they can't understand quantum mechanics. Well that's right we are not aware of these things 161 00:15:51,12 --> 00:15:54,22 but there may be aspects of nature which we are not aware of 162 00:15:54,23 --> 00:15:59,91 and that of course may mean that there are discoveries to be left to. 163 00:16:00,49 --> 00:16:06,91 Brains better than ours some kind of post human entities which may come into existence one day. We'll come to that. Clearly though 164 00:16:06,92 --> 00:16:12,38 this is quite amazing this is. Human beings on planet Earth. 165 00:16:12,38 --> 00:16:18,93 Looking at the universe. Do you think there is science elsewhere in the universe? 166 00:16:18,93 --> 00:16:27,27 Scientists elsewhere? well of of course we don't know I mean I think we can say more in answer to that question 167 00:16:27,28 --> 00:16:32,53 than we could have done twenty years ago because one thing we've certainly learnt which is a great discovery in the last 168 00:16:32,54 --> 00:16:38,6 twenty years is that most of the stars which we see are orbited by 169 00:16:38,61 --> 00:16:43,23 retinues of planets just as the sun is orbited by the earth and the other familiar planets 170 00:16:43,49 --> 00:16:50,17 and it's quite likely that in our Milky Way galaxy there are a billion planets rather like the earth 171 00:16:50,31 --> 00:16:52,85 like the Earth in a sense they are about the size of the earth 172 00:16:53,14 --> 00:16:58,68 and at the distance from their parent star such that water can exist neither boiling away 173 00:16:58,69 --> 00:17:05,26 nor staying frozen. So they are as comfortable to our kind of life. Right as potential habitats 174 00:17:05,3 --> 00:17:09,03 but of course being habitable is not the same as being inhabited 175 00:17:09,37 --> 00:17:14,00 and of course one of the key scientific questions which is not understood yet 176 00:17:14,49 --> 00:17:22,22 is the origin of life even on Earth I mean we understand how from this simplest organisms over three 177 00:17:22,23 --> 00:17:24,88 and a half billion years or so. 178 00:17:24,88 --> 00:17:27,77 our biosphere of which we are a part has emerged 179 00:17:27,92 --> 00:17:36,05 but what is still not understood is the actual origin the transition from complex chemistry to the first metabolizing 180 00:17:36,06 --> 00:17:41,81 replicating structures and that's one of these problems everyone has known is important 181 00:17:42,09 --> 00:17:48,27 but it's been put in the as it were too difficult box. it's very difficult to say of course 182 00:17:48,28 --> 00:17:54,7 but do you feel this is a problem that it's kind of it's foreseeable that say within the next decades we make a breakthrough. I think it is 183 00:17:54,71 --> 00:17:59,98 yes because I think unlike the past now there are serious people working on it . 184 00:18:00,01 --> 00:18:02,14 So I'm hopeful that within ten 185 00:18:02,15 --> 00:18:10,56 or twenty years we will understand how that key transition from biochemistry to the first replicating metabolizing 186 00:18:10,81 --> 00:18:15,64 structures happened I think we will understand that because it's no longer thought premature 187 00:18:15,95 --> 00:18:23,22 and so chemists aided by experiments and computer experiments are making progress and of course 188 00:18:23,37 --> 00:18:31,25 when we understand that which of course is an exciting discovery for even the most earthbound biologist it will tell us two 189 00:18:31,26 --> 00:18:38,16 things it will tell us Was it a rare fluke or would this have happened in some other planet like the earth 190 00:18:38,36 --> 00:18:45,47 because life originated remarkably fast after the moment it was possible. it seems simple life did 191 00:18:45,48 --> 00:18:51,24 multicellular life took longer and that of course does indicate that it wasn't a rare fluke and did happen 192 00:18:51,82 --> 00:18:54,43 and so we will understand that 193 00:18:54,44 --> 00:19:00,64 but another thing we might understand ten twenty years from now is whether the chemical basis of all life on earth 194 00:19:00,65 --> 00:19:01,12 D.N.A. 195 00:19:01,13 --> 00:19:04,36 and RNA and all that is sort of uniquely special 196 00:19:04,68 --> 00:19:11,6 or whether there could be life out there which could be quite different yes could there even be methane-based life on 197 00:19:11,61 --> 00:19:17,38 Titan which is a moon of Jupiter. Of Saturn. And it is exciting that again we are in a position that some of these questions 198 00:19:17,39 --> 00:19:21,79 can be asked and answered experimentally. Well that's right because 199 00:19:22,51 --> 00:19:29,6 well we can't quite do it yet within ten years we have telescopes powerful enough to actually take the spectrum of the 200 00:19:29,61 --> 00:19:37,11 light from a planet around another star and get some feel for is there oxygen there is the surface green 201 00:19:37,15 --> 00:19:41,42 and things like that so we will learn whether there is vegetation 202 00:19:41,99 --> 00:19:47,75 or life of some kind some kind of photosynthesis going on on these other planets around other stars 203 00:19:47,92 --> 00:19:54,66 and that will be a huge discovery. I know that as a scientist you have to you you're very much aware of all the uncertainties 204 00:19:54,72 --> 00:19:59,5 and that experiments will tell us what. but as a cosmologist if you think about the cosmos 205 00:20:01,92 --> 00:20:06,27 What is your personal kind of I would almost say gut feeling 206 00:20:06,32 --> 00:20:15,8 what is your personal intuition you think that the universe is populated. Also with intelligent life? 207 00:20:15,8 --> 00:20:22,8 Well I think we know so little that it is it would be foolish to lay. yes OK 208 00:20:22,98 --> 00:20:29,92 but leaving that aside I mean I think if you asked me to bet yes I would bet that sort of simple life is probably 209 00:20:29,93 --> 00:20:35,41 widespread but of course going from simple life to 210 00:20:35,41 --> 00:20:37,9 Life like us which are self-aware 211 00:20:38,27 --> 00:20:46,12 and intelligent we don't know how likely that was because evolutional biologists debate about the contingencies that were 212 00:20:46,13 --> 00:20:52,45 involved in our emergence they ask the questions the critical points where in some sense life has to go over a certain threshold 213 00:20:52,91 --> 00:20:59,21 that's right and you know if the dinosaurs had not been wiped out you know would 214 00:20:59,21 --> 00:21:05,57 intelligence have developed somewhere else or were these contingencies crucial so we did 215 00:21:05,73 --> 00:21:11,86 and if evolution were rerun on the earth then would it end up the same or would it end up quite different 216 00:21:12,09 --> 00:21:18,29 and so that's an uncertainty which means that even if the simple life we don't know. 217 00:21:18,29 --> 00:21:24,16 How likely it is that it would evolve into anything that became intelligent but then of course there's another question 218 00:21:24,17 --> 00:21:32,63 because one thing which astronomy does tell us is that the time lying ahead exactly is at least as long as the time that 219 00:21:32,64 --> 00:21:38,04 elapsed up till now our sun has been shining for four and a half billion years 220 00:21:38,31 --> 00:21:44,28 but it will be about six billion before it flares up and engulfs the inner planets and wipes out 221 00:21:44,29 --> 00:21:45,95 any life remaining on the earth 222 00:21:46,81 --> 00:21:55,15 and so no astronomer could really believe that we humans are the culmination of evolution. 223 00:21:55,15 --> 00:21:59,98 So it continues. it continues and we have no idea of what's going to happen I mean if we if we. 224 00:22:00,01 --> 00:22:06,28 Think of what might happen on the earth then of course the pessimistic outcome is we wipe ourselves out 225 00:22:06,53 --> 00:22:11,96 but the more optimistic scenario is that the developement continues 226 00:22:12,13 --> 00:22:21,91 but if development continues beyond humans like us it won't be Darwinian selection it will be. 227 00:22:21,91 --> 00:22:31,04 Controlled technology driven evolution by future developers in gene editing and also cyborgs 228 00:22:31,05 --> 00:22:32,88 and artificial intelligence 229 00:22:32,89 --> 00:22:38,96 Can we talk a little bit about that. I think that is a very interesting phase that our civilization is. You know technology 230 00:22:38,97 --> 00:22:45,42 was always around yes but you can definitely say that now it's kind of growing. 231 00:22:45,42 --> 00:22:46,88 Exponentially fast 232 00:22:47,35 --> 00:22:55,7 and I want to come to the topic where I feel personally that we are moving away from a phase where we understood 233 00:22:55,71 --> 00:22:58,81 basically the building blocks of matter and life 234 00:22:58,89 --> 00:23:06,68 and perhaps the universe towards a phase where we start kind of rearranging these building blocks right now so you 235 00:23:06,69 --> 00:23:17,37 already mentioned. We understood living organisms but I think now in the lab we try to create parts or perhaps whole. 236 00:23:17,37 --> 00:23:24,17 Living cells and so you feel this is kind of in some sense a phase transition this is a radical change 237 00:23:24,18 --> 00:23:33,15 I think that this century is special for a number of reasons it's the first when we could. 238 00:23:33,15 --> 00:23:40,18 Create species quite different from anything that now exists it's the first where maybe artificial intelligence electronic 239 00:23:40,19 --> 00:23:45,76 intelligence may start to compete with the level of intelligence in the hardware in our skulls 240 00:23:46,38 --> 00:23:48,87 and it's also of course the century 241 00:23:48,88 --> 00:23:58,39 when for the first time life can spread from the Earth to other places in the solar system so this is a special century 242 00:23:58,52 --> 00:23:59,98 even in the cosmic 243 00:24:00,01 --> 00:24:05,27 Perspective where there have been forty five million centuries already since the earth formed 244 00:24:05,41 --> 00:24:09,87 and there will be at least that number in the future so this century is very special 245 00:24:10,35 --> 00:24:17,72 and can you say something about what you see as future developments not in many many centuries 246 00:24:17,73 --> 00:24:23,51 but say for instance the next next decades because some of these developments are going incredibly fast 247 00:24:23,87 --> 00:24:33,28 and perhaps we are not even the general public is not even aware what is possible right now so for instance thinking both of life 248 00:24:33,35 --> 00:24:40,57 and intelligence How do you see this happening in the coming coming years how will it impact us 249 00:24:40,58 --> 00:24:44,06 well I am not an expert on either of these topics but I think right but 250 00:24:44,07 --> 00:24:52,13 but I think it's clear that our understanding of genetics and our ability to actually synthesize new genomes 251 00:24:52,14 --> 00:24:59,67 and modify existing genomes is developing very fast to the extent it will be possible to almost design new species 252 00:24:59,98 --> 00:25:04,02 or design very heavily modified species and adapt our progeny 253 00:25:04,42 --> 00:25:11,47 and that's going to happen in parallel there is another quite separate development which is. 254 00:25:11,47 --> 00:25:17,99 the advance in computers from being just calculating machines to being. 255 00:25:17,99 --> 00:25:24,31 Objects which can undertake what's called generalized machine learning and we've seen developments of this and 256 00:25:25,08 --> 00:25:27,13 spectacular .. well indeed 257 00:25:27,26 --> 00:25:34,94 and of course to think of some key steps in this it's twenty years since a computer beat Kasparov the world chess 258 00:25:34,95 --> 00:25:36,59 champion. 259 00:25:36,59 --> 00:25:43,21 And that was done by a program being made by expert chess players etc 260 00:25:43,46 --> 00:25:46,39 and the computer could work through millions of moves fast 261 00:25:46,59 --> 00:25:54,32 but we taught the computer how to play chess. what happened this year was a computer 262 00:25:54,64 --> 00:25:59,89 beat the world's champion in the game of Go and this is another very challenging game 263 00:26:00,01 --> 00:26:04,24 more challenging yes but the big difference was in this case 264 00:26:04,48 --> 00:26:06,93 and the computer was not programmed in detail 265 00:26:07,49 --> 00:26:14,93 and it was a really given the general rules then it watched hundreds of thousands of games 266 00:26:15,09 --> 00:26:22,25 and then played against itself and got better so the people who devised the program they didn't understand why it made 267 00:26:22,26 --> 00:26:25,78 some particular clever moves which enabled it to beat the world champion 268 00:26:25,97 --> 00:26:32,93 and so this is an example where the computer is sort of teaching itself by being able to crunch huge amounts of data 269 00:26:33,24 --> 00:26:42,23 and in the same way translation is now done not by giving the computer the details of vocabulary and syntax 270 00:26:42,44 --> 00:26:45,88 but by getting it to read millions of pages 271 00:26:45,89 --> 00:26:51,7 and then if they give it millions of pages of European Union documents of different languages it never gets bored it just reads 272 00:26:51,71 --> 00:26:58,48 all of these kind and eventually learns to translate. it's a perfect civil servant. that's right so this 273 00:26:58,49 --> 00:27:03,98 generalized machine learning is. Are you worried about the fact that these machines who beat people at Go 274 00:27:04,26 --> 00:27:13,2 or in language skills they're basically not able to tell us how they did this right I mean they are not able to instruct us 275 00:27:13,21 --> 00:27:16,58 they just intuitively learn how to do this 276 00:27:16,59 --> 00:27:21,94 in fact in the way a child learns to speak a language you can speak a language 277 00:27:21,95 --> 00:27:28,26 but you're not able to write down the grammar Yes yes Are you worried about that when machines are doing more 278 00:27:28,27 --> 00:27:35,58 and more of that stuff which is really extremely convenient that they are kind of autonomous that they just go their own ways 279 00:27:35,7 --> 00:27:40,41 well I think there is a worry because there's some things which they will be able to do better than humans like 280 00:27:40,42 --> 00:27:41,17 well 281 00:27:41,18 --> 00:27:48,58 well already the the way the quantitative hedge funds steal money of us is by being able to analyze more data than the 282 00:27:48,59 --> 00:27:51,84 human being can and of course that's going to get better 283 00:27:51,85 --> 00:27:58,57 and better as they can see tiny correlations They will take advantages of our weaknesses. that's right they are doing that already 284 00:27:58,58 --> 00:28:08,24 but they do it to a greater extent. but I think we got to bear in mind that still they don't really have. 285 00:28:08,24 --> 00:28:13,95 Human level general intelligence to do some things and of course. 286 00:28:13,95 --> 00:28:22,00 The whole point is that robots are still clumsy I mean they can't move around the pieces on a real chessboard 287 00:28:22,13 --> 00:28:28,42 as well as a child can so there's a long way to go before machines can actually interact with the external world. One thing 288 00:28:28,43 --> 00:28:30,34 I liked of this. 289 00:28:30,34 --> 00:28:39,17 Game Go game between the computer and the. that the fifth game actually was won by the Go champion because he felt. 290 00:28:39,17 --> 00:28:45,83 I'm not going to win I have to do some crazy stuff so he actually did something so this fifth game might be 291 00:28:45,84 --> 00:28:53,17 something that somehow brought out the unique human qualities well that's right a human is more flexible and 292 00:28:54,16 --> 00:28:57,23 and of course there are many things which. 293 00:28:57,23 --> 00:28:58,00 machines can't do 294 00:28:58,08 --> 00:29:06,76 but of course the problem as I understand it it's going to be to ensure that machines have common sense because there 295 00:29:06,77 --> 00:29:17,53 are many things that we understand. About the world for instance I was told that the. Computer that had beaten the. 296 00:29:17,53 --> 00:29:21,09 The American champion in this. 297 00:29:21,09 --> 00:29:27,84 TV game called jeopardy. Watson. yes and I did not know this game 298 00:29:27,85 --> 00:29:31,6 but it is less mindless than most computer than most T.V. 299 00:29:31,61 --> 00:29:36,82 Games but it was asked a question which is bigger: a shoe box or mount Everest 300 00:29:36,86 --> 00:29:43,12 and it couldn't say because it has no conception. It could be a gigantic cosmic shoe box. 301 00:29:43,29 --> 00:29:45,84 it had no conception of the every day world 302 00:29:46,00 --> 00:29:53,69 and another simple example it's given is that if you have one of these robots in your home which is supposed to sort 303 00:29:53,7 --> 00:29:59,69 of make sure that your fridge is stored up and the heating is on and the food is ready for you when you come home you know. 304 00:30:00,21 --> 00:30:07,8 If it's run out of meat it may put the cat in the oven you know because it may not realise that this 305 00:30:07,81 --> 00:30:12,32 is something not appropriate and so. the chicken in the oven is fine. yes 306 00:30:12,33 --> 00:30:21,56 but right so one of the issues really for the people developing AI is to ensure that it does learn what human ethics 307 00:30:21,57 --> 00:30:28,99 and human attitudes are. intelligent enough to be able to learn those sorts of things. I know when 308 00:30:29,00 --> 00:30:35,32 Garry Kasparov was asked you know when he lost this game this chess game against a computer that's you know it's 309 00:30:35,33 --> 00:30:38,08 not man against machine but he said well it's me 310 00:30:38,12 --> 00:30:45,73 and the machine to against somebody else so yes in some sense is that a better image in our mind that we 311 00:30:45,74 --> 00:30:47,94 should kind of start to collaborate with these machines 312 00:30:48,13 --> 00:30:54,65 I think so because I think Kasparov says that a human plus a machine is best 313 00:30:54,8 --> 00:31:00,23 and I think that's going to be the habit but there's are these nightmare scenarios of the machines taking over 314 00:31:00,24 --> 00:31:10,82 and of course the kind of thing which I think is not too futuristic is if we have a system of a city where all the 315 00:31:10,86 --> 00:31:17,26 public services and the transport is controlled in some smart way and the whole thing could go wrong 316 00:31:17,27 --> 00:31:23,55 so we're very vulnerable and one of the downsides of course of all these developments and indeed of the modern 317 00:31:23,56 --> 00:31:29,9 interconnected world is that we are more vulnerable because everything is interconnected. just we go there in a 318 00:31:29,91 --> 00:31:30,46 moment 319 00:31:31,43 --> 00:31:39,79 but if you think about this issue of. we talked about nature about the origins of life the cosmic evolution Yes 320 00:31:40,14 --> 00:31:45,88 Now we are developing technology again from a cosmic perspective. 321 00:31:45,88 --> 00:31:49,91 Is there do you see a difference between what nature is doing what we're doing 322 00:31:50,74 --> 00:31:57,6 Well I think in a sense we're going to take over from nature because if we think of what may happen not 323 00:31:57,61 --> 00:32:08,01 in the next fifty years but maybe in the next. Two or three hundred years then it may well be that humans. 324 00:32:08,01 --> 00:32:17,17 turned into sort of cyborgs or that the electronic machines take over completely because obviously. 325 00:32:17,17 --> 00:32:23,48 They don't have all the features of the human brain but they have the advantage of speed compared to the human brain 326 00:32:23,7 --> 00:32:29,2 and so it could be that the future will lie with. 327 00:32:29,2 --> 00:32:33,83 Electronic machines not organic creatures like us 328 00:32:33,98 --> 00:32:41,41 and I personally think if you ask me my most likely scenario for the next hundred years I think that. 329 00:32:41,41 --> 00:32:48,72 There there will be in a hundred years a few people living on Mars and they will be people who. 330 00:32:48,72 --> 00:32:53,35 are real adventurers that have to cope with a very hostile. 331 00:32:53,35 --> 00:32:54,05 Climate 332 00:32:54,09 --> 00:33:02,94 and conditions. old fashioned explorers. yes right but they're in an environment for which their bodies are ill 333 00:33:02,95 --> 00:33:03,61 adapted 334 00:33:03,92 --> 00:33:11,95 and I think they will use all the technology we will then have to adapt to that new environment whether that will be by 335 00:33:12,25 --> 00:33:16,42 Cyborg techniques by downloading their brains into a machine or something like that 336 00:33:16,59 --> 00:33:24,5 and I think it will happen there because we're probably going to want to control for ethical or prudential reasons the 337 00:33:25,49 --> 00:33:32,56 adoption of these technologies here on Earth where as if you have these people beyond the range of any such regulation 338 00:33:32,69 --> 00:33:33,75 you would wish them good luck 339 00:33:33,76 --> 00:33:40,61 in proving this there they got the biggest motivation But my scenario would be that within a few hundred years there 340 00:33:40,62 --> 00:33:42,23 will be. 341 00:33:42,23 --> 00:33:51,27 Entities that we would call post human in that they would be very different from us so they'd be a new species and if they are. 342 00:33:51,27 --> 00:33:51,98 Electronic 343 00:33:51,99 --> 00:33:57,53 and not organic then of course they may not want to be on a planet at all they may be happier under zero gravity 344 00:33:57,54 --> 00:33:59,95 somewhere else and that will be the future. 345 00:34:00,25 --> 00:34:04,36 And so if you then think in terms of the cosmic perspective of time 346 00:34:04,95 --> 00:34:13,88 when there are millions of centuries ahead then the way things will look is that we had forty five million centuries 347 00:34:14,85 --> 00:34:23,63 and then for a few tens or hundreds of centuries organic civilization evolved developed technology 348 00:34:24,05 --> 00:34:31,96 and then it was taken over by machines and they have billions of years billions of centuries ahead 349 00:34:32,1 --> 00:34:39,67 and so this has an implication also if we are thinking there might be intelligent life elsewhere in the universe 350 00:34:39,68 --> 00:34:44,16 I mean as I said I think there will be probably simple life but if it is intelligent life will be 351 00:34:44,46 --> 00:34:50,66 and I think if we detect any kind of evidence for something artificial. 352 00:34:50,66 --> 00:35:00,22 Beyond our solar system then it is more likely to be these machines because if the evolution on this other planet 353 00:35:00,72 --> 00:35:04,71 had tracked what happened on the earth then it's unlikely to be synchronized 354 00:35:05,08 --> 00:35:10,4 if they are a billion years behind then. because there is only this brief window in some sense where nature 355 00:35:10,41 --> 00:35:16,61 and technology are working at the same time which is our current age. Yes that's right if 356 00:35:16,65 --> 00:35:24,05 if they're behind us then there would be no evidence for any technology if they're ahead of us then they will have got way into 357 00:35:24,06 --> 00:35:32,66 this machine age and so I think it would be unlikely that we would detect any other. 358 00:35:32,66 --> 00:35:39,81 External Intelligence which is anywhere like us so I think the normal talk about you know these 359 00:35:40,69 --> 00:35:47,74 aliens who are sort of bipeds with eyes on stalks maybe that that's not realistic. All unnecessary. 360 00:35:47,75 --> 00:35:57,18 This phase that we are currently in is just a phase of the evolution of life which is necessary to spread from planet earth 361 00:35:57,97 --> 00:36:06,44 through the universe. it's only through technology that we can actually really spread around. 362 00:36:06,44 --> 00:36:15,87 That's right because clearly as humans we're not adapted to long voyages whereas if you're a machine near immortal then these long 363 00:36:15,88 --> 00:36:23,08 and distant voyages if you want to make them are going to be possible but of course this leads to another. 364 00:36:23,08 --> 00:36:32,93 Point. the famous Fermi paradox which is that if indeed life on earth was not unique then why haven't we seen 365 00:36:32,94 --> 00:36:39,49 evidence for the aliens which had a head start over us and if it indeed is a serious constraint 366 00:36:39,5 --> 00:36:48,82 and just does lead me to suspect that perhaps intelligent life is rare and if that's the case of course then it. 367 00:36:48,82 --> 00:36:54,62 Makes what happens here on earth even more important because it clearly matters to us as human beings 368 00:36:54,87 --> 00:36:59,13 but it could be cosmically important because in this century. 369 00:36:59,13 --> 00:37:03,96 What happens will determine whether life takes its next step 370 00:37:03,97 --> 00:37:11,72 and jump starts post human evolution away from the earth and in inorganic form or whether we sort of snuff things out 371 00:37:11,73 --> 00:37:13,25 or go back to the Stone Age 372 00:37:14,04 --> 00:37:24,72 and that would foreclose these potentials for what might happen in the far future. Martin thinking about this 373 00:37:24,72 --> 00:37:28,67 Phase where technology is becoming more important it might even be 374 00:37:28,68 --> 00:37:37,97 taking over what we do here how do you see this from the point of view of evolution is this another phase in evolution 375 00:37:38,1 --> 00:37:44,52 it is a different kind because we've evolved from simple life through Darwinian selection over three 376 00:37:44,53 --> 00:37:50,06 and a half billion years but ofcourse for human beings Darwinian selection has stopped anyway 377 00:37:50,3 --> 00:37:55,95 but future evolution will be technological it will be through modifying the genome 378 00:37:56,21 --> 00:37:59,98 and cyborg technology where we plug into machines etc and so. 379 00:38:00,36 --> 00:38:04,53 This will happen in a directed way on the technological time scale 380 00:38:04,74 --> 00:38:12,79 and therefore much faster because in Darwinian selection it takes about a million years for a species to fully evolve and 381 00:38:12,8 --> 00:38:21,28 go extinct Where as changes to humanity and the emergence of post humans could take just centuries. 382 00:38:21,28 --> 00:38:28,49 Talking about centuries you wrote a book with the title Our Final Century I think in the U.K. 383 00:38:28,5 --> 00:38:37,08 It was Our Final Hour or the other way round. The other way around. the americans like instant gratification and reverse so. An hour. 384 00:38:37,13 --> 00:38:39,08 but it's. 385 00:38:39,08 --> 00:38:48,4 There you talked about the dangers that are coming with these rapid developments in technology can you say 386 00:38:48,41 --> 00:38:50,47 something about what you see as the dangers 387 00:38:50,48 --> 00:38:57,33 and why is this particular century this twenty first century so crucial yes well I think there are two kinds of dangers which 388 00:38:57,34 --> 00:39:05,79 are new to us this century One is that we are collectively putting graver pressures on the environment which then while others 389 00:39:05,8 --> 00:39:14,55 each of us more demanding of energy resources and that is why we worry about climate change. Loss of biodiversity. 390 00:39:14,55 --> 00:39:21,46 And issues like that. is that dangerous to the planet or is it dangerous to us. it's dangerous to us I mean not to the 391 00:39:21,47 --> 00:39:23,94 planet the planet will survive yes 392 00:39:24,11 --> 00:39:29,38 but maybe in a depleted state because if biodiversity is reduced it will be a less exciting 393 00:39:29,58 --> 00:39:35,09 but it happened before this massive extinction Yes that's right so they may have to start again from an early stage 394 00:39:35,29 --> 00:39:42,25 so one class of threats are those we are causing collectively But the other kind which I focused on a bit more in my book 395 00:39:42,6 --> 00:39:43,89 are the threats that 396 00:39:44,16 --> 00:39:52,42 emerge from powerful technologies which empower individuals or small groups of course we had the nuclear weapons 397 00:39:52,43 --> 00:39:57,44 which are the outcome of twentieth century technology which of course changed the global political scene 398 00:39:58,15 --> 00:39:59,98 but. Which was also a pretty close call. 399 00:40:00,01 --> 00:40:06,9 it was a very close call yes. if you would rerun history it's not obvious that we would survive again. absolutely we were just 400 00:40:06,91 --> 00:40:14,65 as McNamara said they were lucky as well as wise at the time of Cuba yes and then we might be less lucky next time 401 00:40:14,82 --> 00:40:20,52 and of course that threat is just in abeyance because we could imagine a new standoff between new super powers 402 00:40:20,53 --> 00:40:24,49 had less Luckily than the Cuba crisis so that's one threat 403 00:40:24,5 --> 00:40:32,69 but I think twenty first century technologies face us with new threats in particular biotechnology because 404 00:40:33,55 --> 00:40:38,35 biotechnology of course is very powerful but we could now edit a genome 405 00:40:38,54 --> 00:40:44,18 and there's something called gain-of-function technology where you can make say the influenza virus more virulent 406 00:40:44,19 --> 00:40:52,5 and more transmissible and these techniques are widely understood biohacking is even a students sport in some places 407 00:40:53,1 --> 00:41:00,02 and they don't need huge special purpose facilities so whereas you can monitor the misuse of nuclear technology 408 00:41:00,61 --> 00:41:02,21 you can't make an H. bomb 409 00:41:02,22 --> 00:41:07,24 in your garage as it were and it's very hard to monitor the misuse of bio and cyber 410 00:41:07,44 --> 00:41:11,63 and that's what worries me that by error or by terror then a small group 411 00:41:11,64 --> 00:41:19,27 or even an individual could cause some sort of global disaster. what about the whole realm of information 412 00:41:19,33 --> 00:41:26,9 and the way we are sharing information our communication technology perhaps also intelligent networks. what do you feel about 413 00:41:27,06 --> 00:41:33,85 well we are vulnerable of course because we depend on global networks for manufacturing etc and this 414 00:41:33,86 --> 00:41:39,87 financial system etc And we know that cyber attacks can already be very serious for these 415 00:41:40,09 --> 00:41:46,61 and that's going to be aggravated I think as time goes on as we become more dependent on information 416 00:41:46,62 --> 00:41:47,11 technology 417 00:41:47,12 --> 00:41:54,26 and networks. Do you feel we are in a certain kind of arms race with technology between kind of the good and the bad applications 418 00:41:54,27 --> 00:41:59,98 because many of these issues you mention need again technology to control. well 419 00:42:00,01 --> 00:42:01,78 They do indeed it's a kind of an arms race 420 00:42:01,99 --> 00:42:08,72 and I think the worry I have is that it's not obvious that the good side is going to win 421 00:42:08,96 --> 00:42:16,1 and I think we can predict unfortunately a growing tension between. 422 00:42:16,1 --> 00:42:21,58 Freedom privacy and security. yes. if we are to avoid the misuse 423 00:42:21,59 --> 00:42:28,38 and I worry not so much about organized state actors as about individual disaffected groups 424 00:42:28,62 --> 00:42:37,37 and my worst nightmare for instance would be someone who was an ecology fanatic who thought there are too many human beings in 425 00:42:37,38 --> 00:42:37,97 the world 426 00:42:38,33 --> 00:42:44,92 and someone with those attitudes combined with fanaticism might say well let's cut down the number of human beings in the world by 427 00:42:44,93 --> 00:42:52,8 releasing some engineered virus. Technologically this is feasible. It's becoming feasible yes. Do you feel is this 428 00:42:53,19 --> 00:42:58,93 is this a purely technological matter or is there also some kind of a moral dimension to it. 429 00:42:58,93 --> 00:43:03,39 Well obviously it would be immoral to do anything like that 430 00:43:03,93 --> 00:43:14,84 but can we do something there also as scientists. Yes Well I think obviously politicians have an extra incentive to minimize 431 00:43:14,85 --> 00:43:17,5 the number of disaffected people with grievances 432 00:43:17,75 --> 00:43:25,89 who are just the kind of people who would do this so the challenge on politicians is much greater because a small minority which 433 00:43:25,9 --> 00:43:31,31 could be overwhelmed by traditional power and they can of course fight back using these technologies 434 00:43:31,32 --> 00:43:40,13 and I think this is a real problem but as regards what scientists can do as such I think scientists. 435 00:43:40,13 --> 00:43:44,8 They're not tremendously wise forecasters always but they can look ahead a bit more 436 00:43:45,04 --> 00:43:51,56 and foresee what are going to be the threats indeed the book I wrote thirteen years ago I'm glad it stood up quite well 437 00:43:51,57 --> 00:43:56,33 in that sense but I think we can foresee what the threats are going to be 438 00:43:56,52 --> 00:43:59,82 and perhaps distinguish better than lay people. 439 00:44:00,11 --> 00:44:05,16 Between what is science fiction and what is something we need to worry about. is it just sketching scenarios 440 00:44:05,41 --> 00:44:07,72 or is it also taking the next step 441 00:44:08,03 --> 00:44:16,94 and perhaps try to convince people to take a certain direction. Well I think it's trying to convince people and politicians 442 00:44:17,11 --> 00:44:25,23 and here again I think we've got to think that. scientists have an advantage because their work is more global 443 00:44:25,86 --> 00:44:32,16 they're more international even in the depths of the Cold War there were fairly open links between scientists 444 00:44:32,17 --> 00:44:40,66 on either side of the iron curtain so science is a global culture which transcends all barriers of faith 445 00:44:40,67 --> 00:44:47,65 and nationality more easily than other cultures so we have that advantage and we share common attitudes 446 00:44:48,56 --> 00:44:50,8 and we can advise our governments 447 00:44:51,01 --> 00:44:58,76 but I think you've got to bear in mind that most of the decisions which politicians have to take. 448 00:44:58,76 --> 00:45:03,09 Involve some science whether they are energy health environment etc 449 00:45:03,3 --> 00:45:09,87 but they're not just science So they have to combine the various components. that's right 450 00:45:09,88 --> 00:45:15,29 and of course on those other components scientists are just citizens they have no special right to be heard 451 00:45:15,61 --> 00:45:18,76 and that's why I think it's very important that. 452 00:45:18,76 --> 00:45:24,35 All citizens should have enough feeling for science and probability 453 00:45:24,36 --> 00:45:29,43 and risk of things like that so they can't be bamboozled too easily by experts 454 00:45:29,66 --> 00:45:35,62 and that they could take part in the debate. if you look at this kind of conversation between science and society 455 00:45:35,67 --> 00:45:39,87 you might argue even looking back on 2016 456 00:45:39,88 --> 00:45:48,48 it was not such a good year for reason. right. so are we losing that debate. 457 00:45:48,48 --> 00:45:53,39 I'm not sure I think the challenges are getting harder but I think. 458 00:45:53,39 --> 00:46:03,41 In an issue where science is an important component like climate change. Energy Policy. health. 459 00:46:03,41 --> 00:46:07,4 Use of genetics. I think we're doing not too badly 460 00:46:07,41 --> 00:46:14,24 but I think the important thing to realize is that scientists can't themselves decide 461 00:46:14,36 --> 00:46:21,62 and here scientists could probably have more influence not by talking directly to a politician or a minister 462 00:46:21,91 --> 00:46:28,21 but through influencing the public consensus because politicians they could dismiss experts 463 00:46:28,32 --> 00:46:33,88 but they can't so easily dismiss something which is in the press every day or which is in their inbox every day from the public 464 00:46:33,94 --> 00:46:41,79 so you mean engaging the public at large. Yes engaging the public at large is a prerequisite for these science related issues to stay on 465 00:46:41,8 --> 00:46:47,73 the agenda especially when they're long term and global like climate change 466 00:46:47,74 --> 00:46:51,89 and environmental energy so I think that's crucially important and 467 00:46:52,63 --> 00:47:00,96 and I think if the public doesn't understand the basics of science then this debate can't really get beyond slogans 468 00:47:01,22 --> 00:47:08,26 and the public can't really be informed citizens. Do you feel that we also should be able to share some of the values of 469 00:47:08,27 --> 00:47:10,22 science and. 470 00:47:10,22 --> 00:47:18,64 Actually what are the values of science for you personally Well of course the values are fairly limited in the sense. 471 00:47:18,64 --> 00:47:19,18 of honesty 472 00:47:19,19 --> 00:47:28,83 and curiosity etc So I don't think there are many values which a scientist needs to have which are not also demanded of other 473 00:47:28,84 --> 00:47:37,47 professionals but I think in science there is this tradition of transnational contacts and open debate 474 00:47:37,69 --> 00:47:42,25 and willingness to be proved wrong and I think we should encourage those use 475 00:47:42,36 --> 00:47:50,73 and also a feeling of probabilities because one of the difficulties in public discourse is that people don't distinguish between 476 00:47:50,74 --> 00:47:54,05 something which is so unlikely that it's not worth worrying about 477 00:47:54,34 --> 00:47:59,98 and things which are worth worrying about because even if unlikely they are so catastrophic. 478 00:48:00,01 --> 00:48:06,2 If they happen that we need to be concerned about them. So one thing I'm personally worried about is there's kind of this 479 00:48:06,21 --> 00:48:10,53 paradox that when science or technology is progressing we learn more 480 00:48:10,54 --> 00:48:14,36 and more the things we learn are kind of quite detailed and technical 481 00:48:14,37 --> 00:48:21,31 almost by definition they are because they're new they are not easy to understand. on the other hand all the 482 00:48:21,32 --> 00:48:23,75 applications of science are more 483 00:48:23,76 --> 00:48:31,19 and more in our lives. so science in the one hand it's kind of moving away from us because of increased complexity 484 00:48:31,2 --> 00:48:38,19 on the other hand it's coming closer because of its relevance So how do we deal with it. how can we make 485 00:48:38,2 --> 00:48:45,1 people understand science if on the other hand only a few individuals might actually fully understand all the details 486 00:48:45,11 --> 00:48:46,95 Yes well I think with difficulty 487 00:48:46,96 --> 00:48:54,38 but I think it's not quite that bad because even though the technical details the mathematics etc of some of the 488 00:48:54,39 --> 00:49:02,6 science we do is very hard for the non specialists to understand I think it is possible to get over the key ideas fairly free of 489 00:49:02,61 --> 00:49:08,24 technicalities I think we can. You are a master of this with cosmology. Well we try it is 490 00:49:08,25 --> 00:49:08,74 difficult 491 00:49:08,75 --> 00:49:16,03 and in fact it's more difficult than people realize because you have to obviously avoid too much mathematics Yes 492 00:49:16,59 --> 00:49:20,22 and you have to avoid technical words You are not a hundred percent truthful 493 00:49:20,53 --> 00:49:25,35 it is very difficult to be honest totally honest sharing your results yes but 494 00:49:25,36 --> 00:49:29,77 but you've got to simplify obviously but hopefully in a honest way 495 00:49:29,78 --> 00:49:36,96 and as Einstein or Bohr said you should make things as simple as possible but no simpler and that's that's a good rule 496 00:49:36,97 --> 00:49:42,75 but I think from my own experience of doing this I think I managed to understand you've got to avoid mathematics 497 00:49:42,92 --> 00:49:48,99 and technical words but there is one particularly difficult thing to avoid which is every day words being used in a special 498 00:49:49,00 --> 00:49:51,94 context and let me give you two examples one is the word 499 00:49:51,95 --> 00:49:59,17 degenerate Yes which we know has a particular meaning in mathematics. A negative meaning. 500 00:49:59,17 --> 00:49:59,98 In mathematics it has 501 00:50:00,19 --> 00:50:05,5 In mathematics it has a tactical meaning a line is a degenerate case of a triangle etc. 502 00:50:05,64 --> 00:50:15,96 and another example which comes up in climate change is. is feedback because if you want to say that. 503 00:50:15,96 --> 00:50:20,32 As the earth warms then it may release methane from the tundra. And it makes things worse. 504 00:50:20,62 --> 00:50:26,94 and it is positive feedback We use the word positive feedback where to most people positive feedback 505 00:50:27,17 --> 00:50:32,82 sounds like what happens after you've had a job appraisal you come out well so positive feedback sounds as a good thing 506 00:50:32,83 --> 00:50:38,28 you did a great job. so that's an example of where the technical phrase can be misunderstood so we got to be careful about 507 00:50:38,38 --> 00:50:45,06 avoiding using everyday words in a sense which is different from. It's like a medical test that comes out 508 00:50:45,07 --> 00:50:51,1 negative which is a good thing. that's right yes. so talking about kind of science 509 00:50:51,11 --> 00:51:00,37 and being a scientist. What would you say are some of the qualities successful qualities that a 510 00:51:00,37 --> 00:51:07,61 What are some of the qualities that a scientist should have or can have. 511 00:51:07,61 --> 00:51:13,53 Well obviously the ability to understand some technical details or certain mathematical skills 512 00:51:13,54 --> 00:51:17,91 and now of course computer skills as well. 513 00:51:17,91 --> 00:51:23,26 But also I suppose the motive to try and understand something 514 00:51:23,27 --> 00:51:26,57 and accept that most of your early ideas are going to be wrong 515 00:51:27,09 --> 00:51:34,25 and also accept that there are some problems which you will never solve I think one of the differences between 516 00:51:34,87 --> 00:51:38,27 lay people and experts is that. 517 00:51:38,27 --> 00:51:44,57 Lay people don't realize that some problems are really too difficult to solve I mean and. 518 00:51:44,57 --> 00:51:52,13 The balance between what is easy and what is difficult is rather surprising. I could give you an example from my own field astronomy 519 00:51:52,7 --> 00:51:59,98 that I expect people to believe me if I tell them about what happens when two black holes a billion lightyears 520 00:52:00,06 --> 00:52:04,43 Away collide with each other and that we got evidence for that 521 00:52:05,12 --> 00:52:10,08 but on the other hand you are foolish to believe any experts on child care 522 00:52:10,09 --> 00:52:14,35 or diet which are things that everyone cares about 523 00:52:14,35 --> 00:52:15,28 and understands 524 00:52:15,81 --> 00:52:24,35 and that's because it's a fallacy to think that every day problems are the easy problems they are also the hardest problem 525 00:52:24,36 --> 00:52:29,73 anything to do with human beings is far harder to understand than any things in the inanimate world 526 00:52:30,31 --> 00:52:37,1 and it's a fallacy to think that they are easy to understand just like people sometimes say that. 527 00:52:37,1 --> 00:52:41,82 It should be easier to cure the common cold than other diseases just because it's common 528 00:52:41,83 --> 00:52:47,73 but that doesn't mean it. so people don't have a feeling for what can be done and what can't be 529 00:52:47,96 --> 00:52:55,71 and of course one of the knacks of being a scientist is to choose a topic to work on which is not trivial 530 00:52:55,97 --> 00:53:03,48 nor on the other hand so intractable that you won't make any progress at all. So talking about the motivation of scientists I 531 00:53:03,49 --> 00:53:09,93 think these motivations come in. Various kind of flavors. 532 00:53:09,93 --> 00:53:15,74 Some people want to understand the world others want to change it. how do you see this. 533 00:53:15,74 --> 00:53:22,01 Well I think as human beings we want to change the world but our understanding is separate from that 534 00:53:22,13 --> 00:53:28,3 but I think among scientists there is a great variety of mental types 535 00:53:28,66 --> 00:53:35,64 and I've been surprised by this because you know my professional life like yours is lived among a fairly homogeneous 536 00:53:35,65 --> 00:53:38,68 group of people with many common interests 537 00:53:38,69 --> 00:53:45,86 but even among them I think we see quite a variety of personality types in those who think pictorially 538 00:53:46,32 --> 00:53:51,11 and those who think in terms of equations those who like computers those who don't like computers 539 00:53:51,38 --> 00:53:59,95 and also those who like to solve problems in a sort of step by step piecemeal way and those who are happy to sort of. 540 00:54:00,32 --> 00:54:09,9 think in a more open ended way What do you think is the role of imagination in science. 541 00:54:09,9 --> 00:54:12,48 I think imagination is crucial 542 00:54:12,49 --> 00:54:19,34 but it's sort of constrained imagination it's not quite like art. Well perhaps is rather like sort of 543 00:54:19,56 --> 00:54:25,11 composing in a fugue or writing a sonnet where you're trying to do something creative but within a standard form 544 00:54:25,4 --> 00:54:29,27 and so science is something where. 545 00:54:29,27 --> 00:54:34,96 Any idea has to be embedded in the huge edifices already built up by your predecessors 546 00:54:35,09 --> 00:54:39,48 but clearly you've got to make some insights. 547 00:54:39,48 --> 00:54:42,47 And unless you make some new insight then 548 00:54:42,78 --> 00:54:49,47 all you do is going to add something which anyone else could have done as well. Rick Feynman said science is 549 00:54:49,48 --> 00:54:57,23 creativity in a straitjacket. Yes. What about playing playfulness. Well I think that is part of it 550 00:54:57,24 --> 00:55:05,04 I think Feynman also said that you got to keep some childhood instincts alive and if I think of 551 00:55:05,61 --> 00:55:12,18 one of the most creative scientists I know who is Roger Penrose he's a good example of someone who 552 00:55:12,18 --> 00:55:18,79 thinks very visually He thinks not only deeper than the rest of us but more differently more pictorial than most of us 553 00:55:19,05 --> 00:55:27,19 and he's an example of someone whose recreations of being creative in thinking of his tiling and antagonal 554 00:55:27,2 --> 00:55:30,68 or quasi Crystal patterns and also he 555 00:55:31,55 --> 00:55:42,11 and his father who was a psychologist invented these impossible figures which inspired Escher who already knew to devise 556 00:55:42,12 --> 00:55:49,85 some of his new new dials on the endless staircase etc So Penrose is an example of someone who you can't really meet without 557 00:55:49,91 --> 00:55:50,58 recognizing 558 00:55:50,59 --> 00:55:58,11 as someone who is especially creative in a sort of playful way as well as obviously a very deep way. I think this famous 559 00:55:58,12 --> 00:55:59,72 quote of Einstein basically. 560 00:56:00,14 --> 00:56:05,36 to the effect that imagination is more important than knowledge because imagination is capturing everything that is yet to 561 00:56:05,37 --> 00:56:14,62 be known. So do you feel that in some sense we also have to be made aware of the opportunity to 562 00:56:14,63 --> 00:56:22,21 understand something that there are certain questions that perhaps you know current generations aren't even aware is a 563 00:56:22,22 --> 00:56:23,31 question that could be answered 564 00:56:23,58 --> 00:56:31,34 well I think that's true that you've got to be aware of some problems which have become tractable and become timely 565 00:56:31,89 --> 00:56:36,31 and work on them but at the same time you don't want to work on something which is impossible 566 00:56:36,51 --> 00:56:38,62 but I think one thing which has happened 567 00:56:38,66 --> 00:56:47,91 and this is perhaps something which is a downside of being a scientist is that science has become a much larger 568 00:56:47,92 --> 00:56:51,34 enterprise with more mixed motives involved 569 00:56:51,62 --> 00:56:58,47 and the number of new insights has sadly not gone up in proportion to the number of people who would call themselves 570 00:56:58,48 --> 00:57:03,68 scientists and that's partly because science is. 571 00:57:03,68 --> 00:57:11,44 Becoming more tactical more detailed needs bigger equipment etc but partly also because there are more commercial pressures 572 00:57:11,45 --> 00:57:19,42 etc so it makes it different. What about the social elements to it I think these days I think you can probably argue that 573 00:57:19,43 --> 00:57:25,73 being a scientist is much more well the interconnectivity of science 574 00:57:25,74 --> 00:57:32,31 and the fact that collaborations are becoming larger Do you see there another development. 575 00:57:32,31 --> 00:57:37,38 Well of course the type of science which is done if you're in a big team is different 576 00:57:37,68 --> 00:57:44,98 and you know it's certainly true that many people who have been original scientists worked in the primary stage of a 577 00:57:44,99 --> 00:57:52,14 subject they would not like to be part of the group at CERN where you are one of a thousand people who are working on a big 578 00:57:52,15 --> 00:57:55,17 experiment that's a quasi industrial organization 579 00:57:55,43 --> 00:57:59,98 and I think one has to warn young people that if they want. 580 00:58:00,01 --> 00:58:06,88 to do science they've got to realize that some kind of science is like being in the industry with some of the downsides 581 00:58:07,23 --> 00:58:11,04 without some of the benefits where as some allows you to be more individual 582 00:58:11,05 --> 00:58:20,01 and to make your own reputation independent of. What about the global element you know we are here in the Vatican 583 00:58:20,39 --> 00:58:23,4 but we have colleagues all over the world. 584 00:58:23,4 --> 00:58:30,3 Do you see some kind of convergence happening if you look at science across the globe Well I think 585 00:58:30,8 --> 00:58:38,37 the benign change is that science is being done more globally I mean it used to be done mainly in North America 586 00:58:38,38 --> 00:58:44,73 and Europe where as now the rise of science in Asia and other parts of the world is surely benign 587 00:58:44,74 --> 00:58:54,18 and I think we must except that the hegemony of the Western world which has existed for four hundred years is 588 00:58:54,19 --> 00:58:59,16 going to end because it's going to be in Asia that the world's economic 589 00:58:59,17 --> 00:59:04,05 and intellectual capital is going to be concentrated from now on and so it's going to get more global 590 00:59:04,23 --> 00:59:10,39 but of course the problems which science needs to tackle are very often global problems 591 00:59:10,95 --> 00:59:17,19 and so it's very appropriate that scientists should collaborate with people all across the world in dealing with the 592 00:59:17,23 --> 00:59:18,4 energy resources 593 00:59:18,41 --> 00:59:24,55 and climate Do you see there's truly one global community There certainly is because some scientists ofcourse I am part of 594 00:59:24,56 --> 00:59:25,07 it yes 595 00:59:25,11 --> 00:59:34,72 but I think clearly the scientists who we have at Vatican meetings who work on the environment or on health care etc They're 596 00:59:34,73 --> 00:59:38,83 part of some global community and what they care about are global problems 597 00:59:39,08 --> 00:59:47,03 and the key thing is to ensure that their voice spreads beyond academia to those who can really change the world 598 00:59:47,99 --> 00:59:53,46 thinking about. coming back again to your own field cosmology so let's kind of zoom out 599 00:59:54,06 --> 00:59:59,98 and looking at the universe and we see here planet earth and we have this group of scientists. 600 01:00:00,04 --> 01:00:06,74 Trying to understand well the planet ourselves but also the universe. 601 01:00:06,74 --> 01:00:13,05 How do you see us from a cosmic perspective what are we exactly doing here on this planet. 602 01:00:13,05 --> 01:00:20,18 Well ofcourse we don't know I think the more one understands about any phenomenon the more amazed one is by it I mean 603 01:00:20,41 --> 01:00:22,42 I think. 604 01:00:22,42 --> 01:00:26,6 When I look at an insect now I'm more amazed by an insect 605 01:00:26,61 --> 01:00:33,34 when I realize all the chemical processes that have to happen if it's just simply to move his leg you know 606 01:00:33,35 --> 01:00:40,31 and one realizes how amazingly intricate the natural world is and in that sense the physical world of stars 607 01:00:40,32 --> 01:00:44,84 and galaxies is simpler than the biological world but of course it's got this sort of scale 608 01:00:45,1 --> 01:00:53,12 and I think it's been a privilege to be working in a subject where our perspective has changed 609 01:00:53,13 --> 01:00:59,06 and expanded in a few decades and of course. 610 01:00:59,06 --> 01:01:06,04 We've really had revolutions going back to the Copernican Revolution originally when we realized the Earth wasn't the center 611 01:01:06,28 --> 01:01:11,79 and then we realized that our sun was just one star in the galaxy 612 01:01:12,04 --> 01:01:16,18 and then our galaxy is just one of billions you can see with a large telescope 613 01:01:16,44 --> 01:01:22,33 and I think we are now perhaps going to be due for a fourth Copernican Revolution 614 01:01:22,65 --> 01:01:29,19 when we will learn that physical reality is much more extensive than the domain we can see with even our biggest 615 01:01:29,2 --> 01:01:37,04 telescopes because we can see with our biggest telescopes out to sort of horizon which is limited to the distance of light 616 01:01:37,05 --> 01:01:39,83 kind of travelled to us from since the Big Bang 617 01:01:40,45 --> 01:01:46,63 but there's nothing physically real about that horizon anymore than there is about the horizon around you if you are in a boat 618 01:01:46,64 --> 01:01:52,97 in the middle of the ocean you don't think that the ocean ends beyond that and there are good reasons to think that the. 619 01:01:52,97 --> 01:01:59,98 Universe extends probably at least a thousand times further than we can see and probably much much more than that 620 01:02:00,55 --> 01:02:04,58 And that's not all because that's all. 621 01:02:04,58 --> 01:02:10,08 The aftermath of our big bang and then the other question is whether our Big Bang is the only one 622 01:02:10,39 --> 01:02:18,49 and there is a popular idea called the multiverse whether there is variance according to which there may be zillions of 623 01:02:18,53 --> 01:02:20,95 other big bangs of which ours is just one 624 01:02:21,3 --> 01:02:28,62 and that they may all be governed by different physical laws from ours we don't know so it could be that there is an 625 01:02:28,63 --> 01:02:36,05 ecology of Cosmoses on a scale far bigger than what we can observe so our perception of overall physical 626 01:02:36,06 --> 01:02:44,03 reality is rather like the perception of a plankton in a spoonful of water of the entire earth you know we are very 627 01:02:44,04 --> 01:02:49,55 limited. take this perspective which is all kind of making us kind of less special Yes On the other hand in the 628 01:02:49,56 --> 01:02:55,66 beginning of our conversation we talked about the special nature of life on Earth we don't know how special it is 629 01:02:55,67 --> 01:03:02,35 the fact that we have intelligent life and the fact that we have life that is intelligent enough to look at the universe 630 01:03:02,39 --> 01:03:11,04 and have thoughts exactly like this so the title of this series we've chosen the mind of the universe. 631 01:03:11,04 --> 01:03:19,92 Perhaps we should have said a mind of the universe which is this special role of us on planet Earth because. 632 01:03:19,92 --> 01:03:27,23 Certainly I think this is one of the few places perhaps the only one we don't know where these kind of thoughts as 633 01:03:27,24 --> 01:03:37,58 you just kind of shared are generated yes so again looking at this vast hierarchy 634 01:03:37,58 --> 01:03:44,7 And our little little you say a little plankton in a drop of water in a huge ocean. 635 01:03:44,7 --> 01:03:49,75 What is that special role we have in observing all of that yes. 636 01:03:49,75 --> 01:03:57,24 Well it we clearly are special in being able to at least grasp the glimmerings of these huge ideas 637 01:03:57,51 --> 01:04:03,47 and it may be that post human intelligence is needed to grasp it more fully but clearly. 638 01:04:03,47 --> 01:04:12,15 Even though we don't know how common life is it's clear that we are living on a special planet this pale blue dot in 639 01:04:12,16 --> 01:04:17,41 the cosmos and it's also equally clear although less well appreciated 640 01:04:17,42 --> 01:04:21,98 that we are living on it in a special time. this century is very special it's the first 641 01:04:21,99 --> 01:04:32,7 when one species namely the human species can determine the planet's fate and also this is a century when we can perhaps. 642 01:04:32,7 --> 01:04:38,73 Start a transition to a completely different form of intelligence based on electronics and machines 643 01:04:39,05 --> 01:04:44,3 and perhaps spread beyond the Earth so this century is special so if you think of a space 644 01:04:44,31 --> 01:04:49,07 and time diagram you know this little dot in space and time is very special 645 01:04:49,55 --> 01:04:55,11 and if we spread around we could be actually could be the mind of the universe Well our descendants could be yes 646 01:04:55,12 --> 01:04:57,26 yes. thank you very much.